Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 5.3¢ · $485 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 67%
$484.89
$25.05
5.3¢ → 5.3¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-16 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
137h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKenCTR | Noavg 5¢ | $328.73 | $367.2 | +$38.47 | 53% 3036-2716 (5752) |
HO HotDogs<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $58.07 | $62.36 | +$4.45 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
CO cowcatCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.8¢ | $48.79 | $28.77 | -$20.04 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 94.5¢ | $17.01 | $17.06 | +$0.04 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Noavg 4.4¢ | $5.61 | $6.67 | +$0.93 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Noavg 3¢ | $1.64 | $2.84 | +$1.19 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$328.73
Value
$367.2
PnL
+$38.47
Record
53%
3036-2716 (5752)
Invested
$58.07
Value
$62.36
PnL
+$4.45
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
Invested
$48.79
Value
$28.77
PnL
-$20.04
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$17.01
Value
$17.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$0.93
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$1.64
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$1.19
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.