Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes94¢No6¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$6.62

Smart Money Entry

93.7¢ → 93.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes94%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,239

Combined PnL-$2.78

No3 traders

Total Value$135.15

Total Shares2,095

Combined PnL-$3.85

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AngryRhino	Yesavg 95¢	$634.49	$624.93	-$10.22	69% 133-59 (192)
QM QMG-CORE	Yesavg 92.2¢	$498.27	$505.65	+$6.83	77% 1408-416 (1824)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$87.65	$84.38	-$3.27	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Noavg 6.7¢	$51.27	$50.7	-$0.57	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Yesavg 91.5¢	$27.45	$28.07	+$0.62	47% 4649-5169 (9818)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 6.9¢	$0.07	$0.07	-$0	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

AngryRhino

Yes

Invested

$634.49

Value

$624.93

PnL

-$10.22

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

QMG-CORE

Yes

Invested

$498.27

Value

$505.65

PnL

+$6.83

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$87.65

Value

$84.38

PnL

-$3.27

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Invested

$51.27

Value

$50.7

PnL

-$0.57

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.45

Value

$28.07

PnL

+$0.62

Record

47%

4649-5169 (9818)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

1798h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.