Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$914.49

Smart Money Entry

19.7¢ → 25.4¢

+29% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,958

Combined PnL+$897.91

No3 traders

Total Value$140.54

Total Shares175

Combined PnL+$16.59

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CD CDAP1CTR	Yesavg 18.1¢	$177.71	$1.2K	+$893.16	30% 11-26 (37)
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR	Yesavg 31.6¢	$321.18	$262.88	-$58.3	63% 353-204 (557)
ME melonmanm<$100	Noavg 71¢	$78.42	$89.72	+$11.31	65% 528-283 (811)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$3.1	$66.14	+$63.04	18% 3833-17382 (21215)
FO forgetfuldory<$100	Noavg 81.3¢	$39.02	$44.03	+$4.66	— 5-5 (10)
IM immanuelcan<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.27	$6.79	+$0.63	53% 906-789 (1695)

CDAP1CTR

Yes

Invested

$177.71

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$893.16

Record

30%

11-26 (37)

TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR

Yes

Invested

$321.18

Value

$262.88

PnL

-$58.3

Record

63%

353-204 (557)

melonmanm<$100

Invested

$78.42

Value

$89.72

PnL

+$11.31

Record

65%

528-283 (811)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.1

Value

$66.14

PnL

+$63.04

Record

18%

3833-17382 (21215)

forgetfuldory<$100

Invested

$39.02

Value

$44.03

PnL

+$4.66

Record

—

5-5 (10)

immanuelcan<$100

Invested

$6.27

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

4877h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

47 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.4%

25.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$264.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.