CDAP1

• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $180K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (88% of 27)
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $16K · now 25¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
• Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?No $1.4K · now 98¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (86% of 7)
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 26¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
• Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Yes $671 · now 70¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes $634 · now 28¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (67% of 32)
• Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $388 · now 97¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?Yes $371 · now 73¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (75% of 12)

• Economy

  +22 pts

  side won 53% of 15 · avg entry 32¢

  ROI +8%

Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.