Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $10K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$9.8K
-$122.97
89.7¢ → 94.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Donny.T | Noavg 90.9¢ | $8.6K | $8.9K | +$289.05 | 72% 484-187 (671) |
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 75¢ | $375 | $472.5 | +$97.5 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
PU PutsOnPeace | Noavg 74.7¢ | $149.33 | $189 | +$39.67 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 LinaBellCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $730.64 | $164.74 | -$565.9 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
 Talophex | Noavg 80¢ | $87.38 | $103.22 | +$15.84 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
SI simpleman<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $4.73 | +$0.88 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
Donny.TInvested
$8,593.01
Value
$8.9K
PnL
+$289.05
Record
72%
484-187 (671)
RememberAmalekInvested
$375
Value
$472.5
PnL
+$97.5
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$149.33
Value
$189
PnL
+$39.67
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
LinaBellCTRInvested
$730.64
Value
$164.74
PnL
-$565.9
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
TalophexInvested
$87.38
Value
$103.22
PnL
+$15.84
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4.73
PnL
+$0.88
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.