Will the Utah Jazz make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $856 held · ends May 16, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$856.04
$268.42
57.7¢ → 84.5¢
+46% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 85%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 52.6¢ | $340.55 | $499.86 | +$163.25 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
AN anciano | Noavg 59¢ | $142.75 | $222.68 | +$94.54 | 52% 1173-1079 (2252) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Noavg 78.8¢ | $93.53 | $92.69 | -$0.84 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $27.97 | $40.16 | +$12.19 | 58% 18597-13721 (32318) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $1.3 | $0.65 | -$0.72 | 40% 706-1071 (1777) |
TimeTravelerInvested
$340.55
Value
$499.86
PnL
+$163.25
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Invested
$142.75
Value
$222.68
PnL
+$94.54
Record
52%
1173-1079 (2252)
Invested
$93.53
Value
$92.69
PnL
-$0.84
Record
50%
1695-1681 (3376)
Invested
$27.97
Value
$40.16
PnL
+$12.19
Record
58%
18597-13721 (32318)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$1.3
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$0.72
Record
40%
706-1071 (1777)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.