Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$3.9K
$160.72
90.7¢ → 96¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 wagwanshawty | Noavg 94¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$48.7 | — 10-5 (15) |
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 82.7¢ | $428.49 | $491.85 | +$63.36 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
 Nadmi | Noavg 78.5¢ | $384.76 | $468.57 | +$83.81 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 fireponbabylonCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $50.35 | $13.26 | -$37.09 | 43% 370-481 (851) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $0.01 | $1 | +$0.99 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.97 | $0.97 | +$0.95 | 39% 965-1508 (2473) |
wagwanshawtyInvested
$2,900.36
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$48.7
Record
—
10-5 (15)
ScottyNoooInvested
$428.49
Value
$491.85
PnL
+$63.36
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
NadmiInvested
$384.76
Value
$468.57
PnL
+$83.81
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
fireponbabylonCTR<$100Invested
$50.35
Value
$13.26
PnL
-$37.09
Record
43%
370-481 (851)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.99
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
flow-trader-at-optiverCTR<$100Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.97
PnL
+$0.95
Record
39%
965-1508 (2473)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.