Consensus PnL $77K · win rate 73% (8–3, n=11) · PM monthly #269 · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.5K
Record
8W / 3L
Win Rate
73.0%
of 11 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#645
Source
PM monthly #269
Trades
13
Markets
44
Volume
$466.1K
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 25 on the consensus side (88%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $19K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $11K · now 72¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $9.5K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $4.3K · now 72¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (68% of 69)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.1K · now 82¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes $3.2K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?No $3.0K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.9K · now 73¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
Specialties
12 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 81¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where wagwanshawty's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 75%(won 100% of 9)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.