Consensus PnL $129K · win rate 59% (607–415, n=1022) · hand-picked wallet · holds 51 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$128.7K
Record
607W / 415L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 1022 settled
Batting Avg
53.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1215
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
75,278
Markets
1,891
Volume
$7.5M
Top consensus positions
51 in listed consensus markets · 43 of 51 on the consensus side (84%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $18K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $18K · now 99¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $8.6K · now 96¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $5.2K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $5.0K · now 84¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No $4.6K · now 92¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $3.2K · now 81¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (50% of 42)
- Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.9K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (75% of 20)
Specialties
1,341 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 66¢- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 81% of 305 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+7 pts
side won 71% of 52 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +7%
- Economy
+4 pts
side won 70% of 77 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Culture — held side won 50% of 16 at an average 68¢ entry (−18 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 24%(won 8% of 323)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 43% of 99)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 60% of 133)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 96% of 786)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.