Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$3.1K
$66.06
83.2¢ → 68¢
-18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
637h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 86.7¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$475.68 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
MA MaxVisionCTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $625.38 | $1.2K | +$531.3 | 37% 42-73 (115) |
 Udonsan | Noavg 65.8¢ | $308.16 | $327.85 | +$10.32 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
BR browne<$100 | Noavg 89.2¢ | $90.99 | $71.4 | -$21.63 | 71% 173-70 (243) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $15.24 | $27 | +$11.76 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $16.07 | $26.07 | +$9.99 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
RememberAmalekInvested
$1,974.62
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$475.68
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$625.38
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$531.3
Record
37%
42-73 (115)
UdonsanInvested
$308.16
Value
$327.85
PnL
+$10.32
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
Invested
$90.99
Value
$71.4
PnL
-$21.63
Record
71%
173-70 (243)
Invested
$15.24
Value
$27
PnL
+$11.76
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$16.07
Value
$26.07
PnL
+$9.99
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.