Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 75% (196–65, n=261) · PM monthly #897 · holds 29 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$64.1K
Record
196W / 65L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 261 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#573
Source
PM monthly #897
Trades
571
Markets
348
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
29 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 29 on the consensus side (72%)- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $15K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?No $10K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (32% of 19)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?No $7.9K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (58% of 19)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $7.8K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (57% of 21)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $7.0K · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?No $3.2K · now 33¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes $2.2K · now 72¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes $2.0K · now 65¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
Specialties
257 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 78¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 83% of 196 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +4%
- Politics
+12 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 0% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 38% of 13)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 65% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 94% of 201)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.