Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.2K
-$21.38
91¢ → 99.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1510h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Imbafer | Noavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$93.7 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $28.37 | $31.02 | +$2.65 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
 BigMackyGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $65.93 | $13.27 | -$52.66 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $71.94 | $12.04 | -$59.9 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $3.72 | $3.14 | -$0.58 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 BlondBeastCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $5.1 | $0.5 | -$4.6 | 69% 780-347 (1127) |
ImbaferInvested
$1,000.77
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$93.7
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
Invested
$28.37
Value
$31.02
PnL
+$2.65
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
BigMackyGCTR<$100Invested
$65.93
Value
$13.27
PnL
-$52.66
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$71.94
Value
$12.04
PnL
-$59.9
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$3.14
PnL
-$0.58
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
BlondBeastCTR<$100Invested
$5.1
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$4.6
Record
69%
780-347 (1127)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.