Consensus PnL $38K · win rate 72% (732–286, n=1018) · was PM monthly #996 · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$38.2K
Record
732W / 286L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 1018 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#657
Source
PM monthly #996
Trades
613
Markets
1,267
Volume
$442.8K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 18 on the consensus side (83%)- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No $4.7K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $4.6K · now 84¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.2K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Viktor Orbán arrested by...?No $1.9K · now 88¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.8K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
- Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?No $407 · now 71¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $386 · now 96¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $305 · now 83¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
Specialties
812 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 68¢- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 74% of 370 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +7%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 77% of 179 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 68% of 121 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 63% of 35 at an average 68¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 14% of 167)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 43% of 67)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 77% of 88)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 95% of 490)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.