Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 2, 2027

Yes87¢No13¢Ends Sat, Jan 2, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$396.98

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 87¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes87%

No13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,385

Combined PnL+$572.24

No1 trader

Total Value$72.24

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$175.26

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Udonsan	Yesavg 75.7¢	$2.2K	$2.8K	+$502.79	79% 250-67 (317)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 71.4¢	$110	$207.1	+$35.13	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
PE peepeepooppoop	Yesavg 74.2¢	$147.81	$173.32	+$25.5	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
smellyEllieCTR	Noavg 29.7¢	$247.5	$72.24	-$175.26	50% 970-988 (1958)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 82¢	$49.56	$54.08	+$4.51	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
KR Krass<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$13.6	$19	+$4.3	74% 452-155 (607)

Udonsan

Yes

Invested

$2,197.74

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$502.79

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$207.1

PnL

+$35.13

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

peepeepooppoop

Yes

Invested

$147.81

Value

$173.32

PnL

+$25.5

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

smellyEllieCTR

Invested

$247.5

Value

$72.24

PnL

-$175.26

Record

50%

970-988 (1958)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.56

Value

$54.08

PnL

+$4.51

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Krass<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.6

Value

$19

PnL

+$4.3

Record

74%

452-155 (607)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.4%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.