Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $605 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$604.6
$85.33
82¢ → 96.4¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
1034h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 81.3¢ | $263.72 | $312.86 | +$48.98 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 GonTanaka | Noavg 84¢ | $180.6 | $207.37 | +$26.77 | 57% 173-128 (301) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $50.25 | $62.81 | +$12.56 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
SI singularityman<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $11.62 | $15.79 | +$4.15 | 42% 138-193 (331) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.5¢ | $9.78 | $4.27 | -$5.51 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
DE dedidancCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $2.7 | $1.5 | -$1.62 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
CarInvested
$263.72
Value
$312.86
PnL
+$48.98
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
GonTanakaInvested
$180.6
Value
$207.37
PnL
+$26.77
Record
57%
173-128 (301)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$50.25
Value
$62.81
PnL
+$12.56
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$11.62
Value
$15.79
PnL
+$4.15
Record
42%
138-193 (331)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$9.78
Value
$4.27
PnL
-$5.51
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$1.5
PnL
-$1.62
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.