Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 8, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$2.5K
-$299.53
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RD rdba | Noavg 97.9¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$46.82 | 60% 131-88 (219) |
11 11122CTR | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $173.72 | $61.35 | -$258.17 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
 DonkovCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $45 | $10.5 | -$34.5 | 71% 968-396 (1364) |
 ImJustKenCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $38.44 | $5.77 | -$32.67 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
FA failstoberCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $13.5 | $5.57 | -$19.2 | 26% 351-985 (1336) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.43 | $0.43 | -$1.81 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
Invested
$2,384.53
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$46.82
Record
60%
131-88 (219)
Invested
$173.72
Value
$61.35
PnL
-$258.17
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
DonkovCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$34.5
Record
71%
968-396 (1364)
ImJustKenCTR<$100Invested
$38.44
Value
$5.77
PnL
-$32.67
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$5.57
PnL
-$19.2
Record
26%
351-985 (1336)
Invested
$0.43
Value
$0.43
PnL
-$1.81
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.