Consensus PnL $435K · win rate 57% (63–48, n=111) · hand-picked wallet · holds 25 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$434.9K
Record
63W / 48L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 111 settled
Batting Avg
55.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1356
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
10,181
Markets
269
Volume
$60.8M
Top consensus positions
25 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 25 on the consensus side (52%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $210K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $6.9K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $5.5K · now 87¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (27% of 22)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $4.8K · now 80¢ · in at 94¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No $4.2K · now 85¢ · in at 96¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $4.1K · now 66¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No $3.3K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (20% of 5)
- Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $2.4K · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (17% of 6)
Specialties
170 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 74¢- Geopolitics
+12 pts
side won 97% of 37 · avg entry 86¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 74% of 42 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+8 pts
side won 60% of 20 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 7% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 64% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 82% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 70%(won 100% of 119)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.