Consensus PnL $297K · win rate 13% (95–631, n=726) · hand-picked wallet · holds 112 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$296.7K
Record
95W / 631L
Win Rate
13.0%
of 726 settled
Batting Avg
86.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2250
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
96,121
Markets
1,512
Volume
$4.7M
Top consensus positions
112 in listed consensus markets · 96 of 112 on the consensus side (86%)- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $63K · now 16¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (82% of 34)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $7.3K · now 38¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $6.5K · now 81¢ · in at 76¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $4.8K · now 96¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $4.2K · now 16¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $4.1K · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.0K · now 90¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $2.7K · now 21¢ · in at 16¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
Specialties
839 settled consensus markets · held side won 17% at an average entry of 16¢- Finance
+15 pts
side won 24% of 21 · avg entry 8¢
ROI −2%
- NHL
+4 pts
side won 50% of 107 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +9%
- Geopolitics
+13 pts
side won 58% of 26 · avg entry 44¢
ROI −4%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 5% of 526 at an average 6¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 74%(won 3% of 617)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 46% of 134)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 65% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 96% of 26)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.