Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$4.3K
$1.1K
80.1¢ → 98.4¢
+23% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
1654h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 77.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.5K | +$528.38 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 vinii | Noavg 90.5¢ | $5.5 | $1.1K | +$458.29 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
PA pako | Noavg 74.2¢ | $516.56 | $656.27 | +$139.71 | 65% 250-132 (382) |
TT tttt123 | Noavg 79.9¢ | $91.77 | $112.92 | +$21.14 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 Tenebrus7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $61.53 | $5.89 | -$55.65 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $2.15 | $1.53 | -$0.62 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
Invested
$1,930.37
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$528.38
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
viniiInvested
$5.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$458.29
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Invested
$516.56
Value
$656.27
PnL
+$139.71
Record
65%
250-132 (382)
Invested
$91.77
Value
$112.92
PnL
+$21.14
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
Tenebrus7CTR<$100Invested
$61.53
Value
$5.89
PnL
-$55.65
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$1.53
PnL
-$0.62
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.