Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.3m barrels per day in 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $964 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$963.85
$159.91
69.6¢ → 85¢
+22% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dr.mett | Noavg 71.9¢ | $418.48 | $477.43 | +$58.95 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 72.3¢ | $214.81 | $229.67 | +$34.2 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
 cambridgeisaac | Noavg 75¢ | $100 | $113.85 | +$13.85 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
 theta-thunberg<$100 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $68.22 | $91.71 | +$23.49 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 Gohst<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $21.6 | $51 | +$29.4 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.18 | $0.2 | +$0.03 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
Dr.mettInvested
$418.48
Value
$477.43
PnL
+$58.95
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
StarMasterInvested
$214.81
Value
$229.67
PnL
+$34.2
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$100
Value
$113.85
PnL
+$13.85
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
theta-thunberg<$100Invested
$68.22
Value
$91.71
PnL
+$23.49
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
Gohst<$100Invested
$21.6
Value
$51
PnL
+$29.4
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.2
PnL
+$0.03
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.