Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$11.3K
$-4.8K
78.9¢ → 96.5¢
+22% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
312h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $8.4K | $9.8K | +$1.4K | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
 2B9S | Noavg 21.1¢ | $107.76 | $612.02 | +$504.26 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
MA Maki777CTR | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $707.57 | $287.15 | $-1.6K | 38% 9-15 (24) |
 The-Joker | Noavg 76.9¢ | $218.14 | $273.88 | +$55.74 | 68% 1507-701 (2208) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $4.4K | $235.19 | $-4.2K | 61% 203-132 (335) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR | Yesavg 68.7¢ | $1.0K | $51.75 | -$978.23 | 58% 182-132 (314) |
Invested
$8,388.13
Value
$9.8K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
2B9SInvested
$107.76
Value
$612.02
PnL
+$504.26
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
Invested
$707.57
Value
$287.15
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
38%
9-15 (24)
The-JokerInvested
$218.14
Value
$273.88
PnL
+$55.74
Record
68%
1507-701 (2208)
Invested
$4,438.52
Value
$235.19
PnL
$-4.2K
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
BiDiFakePollsCTRInvested
$1,029.98
Value
$51.75
PnL
-$978.23
Record
58%
182-132 (314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.