Consensus PnL $139K · win rate 68% (809–385, n=1194) · PM monthly #748 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$139.4K
Record
809W / 385L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 1194 settled
Batting Avg
49.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#809
Source
PM monthly #748 + pinned
Trades
27,754
Markets
2,344
Volume
$5.0M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 21 of 23 on the consensus side (91%)- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $13K · now 73¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (76% of 29)
- Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?Yes $12K · now 12¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $12K · now 53¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (80% of 20)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $9.6K · now 72¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $5.5K · now 80¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $4.7K · now 98¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Yes $4.2K · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (78% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.0K · now 93¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (71% of 31)
Specialties
1,855 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 66¢- Finance
+16 pts
side won 84% of 45 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +3%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 81% of 276 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +8%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 73% of 326 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 45% of 94 at an average 55¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 10% of 282)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 38% of 243)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 66% of 353)
- 70¢ and up: 53%(won 94% of 977)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.