Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$2.1K
-$190.99
91.1¢ → 93.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
182h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$50.92 | — |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 11.2¢ | $462.62 | $239 | -$223.63 | — 0-11 (11) |
 EgoVolae | Noavg 87.8¢ | $199.74 | $160.15 | +$13.53 | — 6-7 (13) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $96.57 | $63.72 | -$32.85 | 50% 89-89 (178) |
 boyauCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $5.15 | $5.86 | +$0.71 | 37% 125-209 (334) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 88.6¢ | $4.94 | $5.27 | +$0.33 | 85% 29-5 (34) |
Invested
$1,550.8
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$50.92
Record
—
Invested
$462.62
Value
$239
PnL
-$223.63
Record
—
0-11 (11)
EgoVolaeInvested
$199.74
Value
$160.15
PnL
+$13.53
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Invested
$96.57
Value
$63.72
PnL
-$32.85
Record
50%
89-89 (178)
boyauCTR<$100Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.86
PnL
+$0.71
Record
37%
125-209 (334)
Invested
$4.94
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0.33
Record
85%
29-5 (34)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.