Consensus PnL $802K · win rate 42% (159–223, n=382) · PM monthly #393 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$801.9K
Record
159W / 223L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 382 settled
Batting Avg
46.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1501
Source
PM monthly #393
Record (90 d)
80/209 · 38%
Trades
1,467
Markets
562
Volume
$10.8M
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Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 26 on the consensus side (69%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $123K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (77% of 31)
- Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $110K · now 99¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (45% of 20)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $95K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (87% of 30)
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No $68K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $67K · now 91¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (75% of 33)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $61K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $50K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $45K · now 87¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (67% of 21)
Specialties
408 settled consensus markets · held side won 37% at an average entry of 31¢- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 33% of 164 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +1%
- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 37% of 84 · avg entry 28¢
ROI −1%
- Finance
+6 pts
side won 40% of 106 · avg entry 34¢
ROI 0%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 59%(won 10% of 242)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 58% of 60)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 75% of 53)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 53)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.