Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in November?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $15K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$14.6K
-$2.84
97.5¢ → 97.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
61h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $8.7K | $8.7K | +$0 | 94% 242-16 (258) |
ST stupid22 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $5.5K | $5.6K | -$0.95 | 94% 412-26 (438) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $224.75 | $224.75 | -$8.99 | — 2-12 (14) |
SM SmallFishGamblerCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $100 | $105.79 | +$5.79 | 44% 20-25 (45) |
 XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $18.7 | $20 | +$1.3 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $18.44 | $18.44 | +$0 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$8,665.8
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
94%
242-16 (258)
Invested
$5,531.19
Value
$5.6K
PnL
-$0.95
Record
94%
412-26 (438)
Invested
$224.75
Value
$224.75
PnL
-$8.99
Record
—
2-12 (14)
Invested
$100
Value
$105.79
PnL
+$5.79
Record
44%
20-25 (45)
XAE12ArchangelCTR<$100Invested
$18.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.3
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
Invested
$18.44
Value
$18.44
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.