Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 96% (247–11, n=258) · hand-picked wallet · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.4K
Record
247W / 11L
Win Rate
96.0%
of 258 settled
Batting Avg
64.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#130
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,338
Markets
292
Volume
$4.5M
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 15 on the consensus side (100%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $97K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $59K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $43K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (35% of 17)
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No $36K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $22K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (91% of 47)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $22K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in November?No $18K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $15K · now 84¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (63% of 24)
Specialties
263 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 97¢- Economy
+2 pts
side won 100% of 63 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 97% of 38 at an average 100¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 50% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 98% of 257)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.