Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $413 held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$413.16
$-2.7K
3.2¢ → 0.2¢
-94% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NY NyetRiskCTR | Yes | $179.51 | $179.51 | $-1.7K | 7% 14-187 (201) |
HO Hourglass | Noavg 99.7¢ | $161.14 | $161 | -$0.14 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
FL flawfenceCTR | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $1.0K | $56.87 | -$958.73 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $9.4 | $10.53 | +$1.12 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $48.56 | $4.51 | -$44.59 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.02 | $0.15 | +$0.12 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
Invested
$179.51
Value
$179.51
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$161.14
Value
$161
PnL
-$0.14
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$1,015.6
Value
$56.87
PnL
-$958.73
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$1.12
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$48.56
Value
$4.51
PnL
-$44.59
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.15
PnL
+$0.12
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.