Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (96%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 3.7¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$261.99

Smart Money Entry

18.9¢ → 3.7¢

-80% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$844.51

Total Shares3,185

Combined PnL-$385.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$754.78

Total Shares782

Combined PnL+$123.17

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcatCTR	Noavg 19¢	$1.3K	$843.8	-$383.76	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Yesavg 80.5¢	$386.99	$451.94	+$64.95	66% 558-290 (848)
TH thoodr	Yesavg 94.7¢	$183.95	$187.52	+$3.96	96% 631-24 (655)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$5.48	$58.38	+$52.9	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100	Yesavg 93.3¢	$55.58	$56.93	+$1.36	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
JustADonkCTR<$100	Noavg 10.5¢	$2.12	$0.71	-$1.4	55% 900-743 (1643)

cowcatCTR

Invested

$1,256.3

Value

$843.8

PnL

-$383.76

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Yes

Invested

$386.99

Value

$451.94

PnL

+$64.95

Record

66%

558-290 (848)

thoodr

Yes

Invested

$183.95

Value

$187.52

PnL

+$3.96

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.48

Value

$58.38

PnL

+$52.9

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.58

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

JustADonkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$1.4

Record

55%

900-743 (1643)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 96%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.9%

3.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1930.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

2030.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.