Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 81¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$4.6K
-$636.14
75¢ → 81¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
168h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DirkDiggler67 | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $2.2K | $2.4K | +$215.86 | 60% 493-330 (823) |
 morito181 | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$54.36 | 61% 849-552 (1401) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 34.5¢ | $741.01 | $424.48 | -$286.02 | 42% 5267-7198 (12465) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 74¢ | $38.42 | $270.39 | +$37.41 | 50% 1703-1693 (3396) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Noavg 65.5¢ | $926.73 | $254.83 | -$657.75 | 49% 1837-1905 (3742) |
DirkDiggler67Invested
$2,155.24
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$215.86
Record
60%
493-330 (823)
morito181Invested
$1,250.01
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$54.36
Record
61%
849-552 (1401)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$741.01
Value
$424.48
PnL
-$286.02
Record
42%
5267-7198 (12465)
Invested
$38.42
Value
$270.39
PnL
+$37.41
Record
50%
1703-1693 (3396)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$926.73
Value
$254.83
PnL
-$657.75
Record
49%
1837-1905 (3742)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.