Consensus PnL $122K · win rate 60% (378–254, n=632) · PM monthly #450 · holds 12 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$122.1K
Record
378W / 254L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 632 settled
Batting Avg
57.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#821
Source
PM monthly #450
Record (90 d)
35/96 · 36%
Trades
1,705
Markets
891
Volume
$2.1M
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Top consensus positions
12 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 12 on the consensus side (67%)- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Yes $13K · now 44¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes $3.5K · now 19¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (64% of 28)
- U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?No $3.2K · now 92¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Yes $2.8K · now 99¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (40% of 53)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes $2.4K · now 98¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (63% of 40)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?Yes $1.5K · now 32¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?No $536 · now 99¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (94% of 35)
- Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $485 · now 27¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (36% of 11)
Specialties
647 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 54¢- Politics
+8 pts
side won 66% of 170 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 52% of 73 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 77% of 62 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 17% of 12 at an average 40¢ entry (−23 pts against the price), ROI −38%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 12% of 225)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 48% of 65)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 81% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 94% of 295)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.