Consensus PnL $991K · win rate 69% (531–239, n=770) · PM monthly #205 · holds 156 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$991.1K
Record
531W / 239L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 770 settled
Batting Avg
65.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#820
Source
PM monthly #205 + pinned
Record (90 d)
229/281 · 81%
Trades
105,572
Markets
1,663
Volume
$37.2M
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Top consensus positions
156 in listed consensus markets · 123 of 156 on the consensus side (79%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $62K · now 82¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (82% of 145)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $58K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 37)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $56K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (89% of 57)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $43K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $42K · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (61% of 34)
- US recession by end of 2026?No $38K · now 95¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (88% of 32)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $34K · now 67¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (62% of 152)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $34K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (87% of 30)
Specialties
920 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 70¢- Politics
+3 pts
side won 88% of 72 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+7 pts
side won 67% of 52 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+6 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 60¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 47% of 19 at an average 60¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 6% of 201)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 43% of 47)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 54% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 96% of 615)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.