Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Coco Gauff, while the market favors Marta Kostyuk (54%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Game Spread: Coco Gauff (-4.5) vs Marta Kostyuk (+4.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Coco Gauff (40%) · Coco Gauff at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
Coco Gauff
5
Coco Gauff 40%
$1.6K
$11.78
50.1¢ → 46.5¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralCoco Gauff at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Marta Kostyuk 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Coco Gauff. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 one8tyfive | Marta Kostyukavg 50¢ | $710 | $766.8 | +$56.8 | — 6-3 (9) |
CR Crazyboy77CTR | Coco Gauffavg 50¢ | $750 | $705 | -$45 | 9% 10-97 (107) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Marta Kostyukavg 53.3¢ | $92.37 | $87.8 | +$0.43 | 52% 661-616 (1277) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Coco Gauffavg 51.6¢ | $50 | $45.57 | -$4.43 | 25% 143-420 (563) |
NO Notradecopy<$100 | Marta Kostyukavg 49¢ | $39.06 | $43.05 | +$3.99 | 10% 20-174 (194) |
one8tyfiveInvested
$710
Value
$766.8
PnL
+$56.8
Record
—
6-3 (9)
Invested
$750
Value
$705
PnL
-$45
Record
9%
10-97 (107)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$92.37
Value
$87.8
PnL
+$0.43
Record
52%
661-616 (1277)
Invested
$50
Value
$45.57
PnL
-$4.43
Record
25%
143-420 (563)
Invested
$39.06
Value
$43.05
PnL
+$3.99
Record
10%
20-174 (194)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.