Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

38 of 47 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 99¢ · $753K held · ends Nov 4

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$752.9K

Combined PnL

$22.5K

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 98.6¢

+3% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

38 of 47 top traders (81%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No38 traders

Total Value$751.8K

Total Shares763,148

Combined PnL+$23.8K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares68,578

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 23

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 84% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
elmcap2	Noavg 97.3¢	$173.5K	$170.9K	+$2.2K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 94.5¢	$152.7K	$155.7K	+$3.0K	56% 15371-11922 (27293)
WA wan123	Noavg 93.9¢	$101.3K	$106.3K	+$5.0K	39% 196-304 (500)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 94.3¢	$56.7K	$59.2K	+$2.6K	94% 242-16 (258)
AngryRhino	Noavg 94.1¢	$47.3K	$48.7K	+$2.2K	69% 133-59 (192)
TH thoodr	Noavg 96.4¢	$24.9K	$25.4K	+$550.16	96% 631-24 (655)
Seutervoinen	Noavg 95¢	$23.8K	$24.7K	+$898.31	85% 311-57 (368)
ST stupid22	Noavg 95.9¢	$23.0K	$23.6K	+$622.59	94% 411-26 (437)
PI pilimili	Noavg 97.9¢	$19.6K	$19.7K	+$130	62% 151-91 (242)
december	Noavg 97.5¢	$17.5K	$17.7K	+$193.09	83% 129-27 (156)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 98¢	$17.2K	$17.3K	+$88.02	72% 3507-1334 (4841)
JJo	Noavg 96.8¢	$14.5K	$14.8K	+$260.03	66% 944-496 (1440)
TBill1	Noavg 97.4¢	$21.5K	$13.6K	+$4.1K	45% 154-188 (342)
QM QMG-CORE	Noavg 95¢	$6.3K	$6.6K	+$236.73	77% 1408-416 (1824)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758	Noavg 92.8¢	$5.2K	$5.6K	+$321.95	47% 83-94 (177)
HE HerrieDavis	Noavg 90.6¢	$5.2K	$5.5K	+$328.4	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
CO cocococococo	Noavg 95.8¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$128.19	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
archaic	Noavg 95.7¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$121.61	85% 1906-339 (2245)
Donny.T	Noavg 95¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$114.37	72% 484-187 (671)
ST StudentMoney	Noavg 95.9¢	$21.1K	$3.4K	+$175.87	71% 828-343 (1171)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.1¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$71.64	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 97.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$24.4	97% 2582-68 (2650)
Car	Noavg 95.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$27.99	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
randomWalkingShrimp	Noavg 90.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$184.32	77% 1204-366 (1570)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$41.8	55% 78-65 (143)

elmcap2

Invested

$173,459.84

Value

$170.9K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$152,697.34

Value

$155.7K

PnL

+$3.0K

Record

56%

15371-11922 (27293)

wan123

Invested

$101,294.38

Value

$106.3K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

chriszyy3

Invested

$56,674.29

Value

$59.2K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

AngryRhino

Invested

$47,313.04

Value

$48.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

69%

133-59 (192)

thoodr

Invested

$24,859.36

Value

$25.4K

PnL

+$550.16

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Seutervoinen

Invested

$23,784.92

Value

$24.7K

PnL

+$898.31

Record

85%

311-57 (368)

stupid22

Invested

$22,961.06

Value

$23.6K

PnL

+$622.59

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

pilimili

Invested

$19,580

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$130

Record

62%

151-91 (242)

december

Invested

$17,546

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$193.09

Record

83%

129-27 (156)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$17,187.79

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$88.02

Record

72%

3507-1334 (4841)

JJo

Invested

$14,514.99

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$260.03

Record

66%

944-496 (1440)

TBill1

Invested

$21,502.67

Value

$13.6K

PnL

+$4.1K

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

QMG-CORE

Invested

$6,320.86

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$236.73

Record

77%

1408-416 (1824)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758

Invested

$5,248

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$321.95

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

HerrieDavis

Invested

$5,218.61

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$328.4

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

cocococococo

Invested

$4,522.74

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$128.19

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

archaic

Invested

$4,073.59

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$121.61

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Donny.T

Invested

$3,333.28

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$114.37

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

StudentMoney

Invested

$21,064.62

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$175.87

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$3,065.31

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$71.64

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

BunCaCham

Invested

$2,714.93

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$24.4

Record

97%

2582-68 (2650)

Car

Invested

$2,597.05

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$27.99

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

randomWalkingShrimp

Invested

$2,104.28

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$184.32

Record

77%

1204-366 (1570)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Invested

$1,710.76

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$41.8

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

38 of 47 top traders (81%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 83% · 12

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 23

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 84% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.