Consensus PnL $154K · win rate 55% (176–142, n=318) · PM monthly #429 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$154.2K
Record
176W / 142L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 318 settled
Batting Avg
58.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#946
Source
PM monthly #429
Record (90 d)
73/166 · 44%
Trades
1,178
Markets
503
Volume
$3.0M
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Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 3 on the consensus side (0%)- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 17¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 25¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $292 · now 7¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 50¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 64% of 36 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 47% of 244 at an average 48¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 19% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 35% of 94)
- 50–70¢: 22%(won 65% of 62)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 96% of 57)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.