Consensus PnL $56K · win rate 75% (241–79, n=320) · was PM monthly #456 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$55.7K
Record
241W / 79L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 320 settled
Batting Avg
55.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#571
Source
PM monthly #456 + pinned
Trades
17,272
Markets
453
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 5 on the consensus side (60%)- US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?No $4.6K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (64% of 22)
- Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?No $59 · now 83¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes $50 · now 12¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes $38 · now 18¢ · in at 31¢against the consensus (No)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $9 · now 92¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
Specialties
303 settled consensus markets · held side won 78% at an average entry of 75¢- Politics
+18 pts
side won 100% of 14 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 10% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 29% of 17)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 62% of 34)
- 70¢ and up: 74%(won 93% of 223)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.