Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

5 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (23%) · No at 89¢ · $48K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 23%

Total Value

$48.1K

Combined PnL

$399.06

Smart Money Entry

55.9¢ → 88.5¢

+58% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$43.5K

Total Shares50,055

Combined PnL+$16.2K

Yes17 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares42,151

Combined PnL$-15.8K

No — 23%Yes — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

2121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Udonsan	Noavg 63.8¢	$14.3K	$19.9K	+$5.6K	79% 250-67 (317)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 53.5¢	$9.1K	$15.0K	+$5.9K	63% 166-99 (265)
DE denizz	Noavg 41.4¢	$3.9K	$8.4K	+$4.6K	68% 597-284 (881)
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR	Yesavg 55.4¢	$6.9K	$1.4K	$-5.5K	49% 112-118 (230)
tetraseCTR	Yesavg 57.9¢	$4.8K	$919.46	$-3.9K	61% 839-544 (1383)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR	Yesavg 53.9¢	$2.0K	$428.09	$-1.6K	47% 85-95 (180)
Warren-BuffettCTR	Yesavg 58.4¢	$2.2K	$406.98	$-1.7K	65% 862-465 (1327)
JO JoeBlack01CTR	Yesavg 41.2¢	$1.2K	$328.64	-$886.74	60% 474-313 (787)
eCashCTR	Yesavg 27.9¢	$680.53	$280.6	-$399.93	68% 331-155 (486)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Yesavg 55.5¢	$958.73	$192.6	-$766.12	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
CarCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$318.02	$184.42	-$133.6	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 29.8¢	$297.88	$114.77	-$183.11	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
Rex416CTR	Yesavg 32.4¢	$323.63	$110	-$208.63	57% 2537-1923 (4460)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$159.61	$87.79	-$67.84	36% 190-333 (523)
PorxCTR	Yesavg 14.7¢	$103	$77	-$22.5	66% 1482-769 (2251)
Trading4FridgeCTR	Yesavg 35.7¢	$189.09	$58.2	-$128.24	58% 928-661 (1589)
0X 0xbF4d202382CTR	Yesavg 49.8¢	$216.88	$47.91	-$166.8	71% 301-120 (421)
GonTanaka<$100	Noavg 87¢	$45.24	$44.72	+$0.78	57% 173-128 (301)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$23.5	$43.6	+$20.11	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
JE Jest55CTR<$100	Yesavg 40.9¢	$81.78	$22	-$58.78	75% 1028-338 (1366)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$79	$22	-$57	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$12.84	$5.73	-$7.11	50% 1537-1513 (3050)

Udonsan

Invested

$14,303.99

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

79%

250-67 (317)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$9,074.17

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

63%

166-99 (265)

denizz

Invested

$3,872.83

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,922.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-5.5K

Record

49%

112-118 (230)

tetraseCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,788.83

Value

$919.46

PnL

$-3.9K

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,005.72

Value

$428.09

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

47%

85-95 (180)

Warren-BuffettCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,159.69

Value

$406.98

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

65%

862-465 (1327)

JoeBlack01CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,230.33

Value

$328.64

PnL

-$886.74

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

eCashCTR

Yes

Invested

$680.53

Value

$280.6

PnL

-$399.93

Record

68%

331-155 (486)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Yes

Invested

$958.73

Value

$192.6

PnL

-$766.12

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

CarCTR

Yes

Invested

$318.02

Value

$184.42

PnL

-$133.6

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$297.88

Value

$114.77

PnL

-$183.11

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

Rex416CTR

Yes

Invested

$323.63

Value

$110

PnL

-$208.63

Record

57%

2537-1923 (4460)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$159.61

Value

$87.79

PnL

-$67.84

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

PorxCTR

Yes

Invested

$103

Value

$77

PnL

-$22.5

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

Trading4FridgeCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.09

Value

$58.2

PnL

-$128.24

Record

58%

928-661 (1589)

0xbF4d202382CTR

Yes

Invested

$216.88

Value

$47.91

PnL

-$166.8

Record

71%

301-120 (421)

GonTanaka<$100

Invested

$45.24

Value

$44.72

PnL

+$0.78

Record

57%

173-128 (301)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$23.5

Value

$43.6

PnL

+$20.11

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Jest55CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.78

Value

$22

PnL

-$58.78

Record

75%

1028-338 (1366)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79

Value

$22

PnL

-$57

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

ScottyNoooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.84

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$7.11

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Late

2121h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 78% · 9

Diverging

sharpYes 60% · 5

Diverging

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 93% · 14

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.