Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$432.18

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 82.5¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,672

Combined PnL+$519.64

Yes4 traders

Total Value$72.26

Total Shares413

Combined PnL-$87.46

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Noavg 65.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$362.36	73% 350-129 (479)
Optimus-	Noavg 52.3¢	$261.59	$408.44	+$146.85	61% 1200-768 (1968)
0X 0xbF4d202382<$100	Noavg 72.9¢	$51.9	$58.72	+$6.82	71% 301-120 (421)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 43.1¢	$114.05	$46.27	-$67.78	60% 1777-1177 (2954)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$27	$17.5	-$9.5	56% 973-770 (1743)
Porx<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$12.98	$16.59	+$3.6	66% 1482-769 (2251)
0X 0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$8.67	$4.6	-$4.07	51% 2097-1976 (4073)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$10	$3.89	-$6.11	57% 1114-837 (1951)

M2sx92kljs42

Invested

$1,358.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$362.36

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

Optimus-

Invested

$261.59

Value

$408.44

PnL

+$146.85

Record

61%

1200-768 (1968)

0xbF4d202382<$100

Invested

$51.9

Value

$58.72

PnL

+$6.82

Record

71%

301-120 (421)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$114.05

Value

$46.27

PnL

-$67.78

Record

60%

1777-1177 (2954)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$9.5

Record

56%

973-770 (1743)

Porx<$100

Invested

$12.98

Value

$16.59

PnL

+$3.6

Record

66%

1482-769 (2251)

0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.67

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$4.07

Record

51%

2097-1976 (4073)

cambridgeisaacCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$6.11

Record

57%

1114-837 (1951)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

4876h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (8 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.5%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.