Consensus PnL $484K · win rate 59% (285–195, n=480) · PM monthly #752 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$484.3K
Record
285W / 195L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 480 settled
Batting Avg
63.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#809
Source
PM monthly #752
Record (90 d)
104/121 · 86%
Trades
26,971
Markets
1,225
Volume
$5.3M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Lightning vs. JetsJets $7 · now 39¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (67% of 26)
- Texans vs. ChargersTexans $7 · now 99¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (70% of 63)
Specialties
316 settled consensus markets · held side won 77% at an average entry of 64¢- MLB
+17 pts
side won 81% of 122 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +4%
- NHL
+12 pts
side won 85% of 110 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +6%
- NFL
+14 pts
side won 87% of 30 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 41% of 41 at an average 43¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 20% of 49)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 53% of 32)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 78% of 76)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 98% of 159)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.