Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Chargers, while the market favors Texans (67%). 6 of 24 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Texans vs. Chargers

6 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Chargers (25%) · Chargers at 34¢ · $293K held · ends Nov 8

Texans67¢Chargers33¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Chargers

Consensus Traders

Chargers 25%

Total Value

$293.2K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

32.4¢ → 33.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

6 of 24 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Texans67%

Chargers34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Chargers6 traders

Total Value$167.4K

Total Shares505,506

Combined PnL+$3.8K

Texans18 traders

Total Value$125.9K

Total Shares188,171

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Chargers — 25%Texans — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexans 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 67% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Chargersavg 33¢	$99.0K	$100.5K	+$1.5K	41% 643-941 (1584)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Chargersavg 31.3¢	$62.2K	$64.5K	+$2.3K	52% 244-229 (473)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Texansavg 68¢	$34.0K	$33.7K	-$249.91	53% 680-594 (1274)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Texansavg 67¢	$33.4K	$33.2K	-$249.53	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
VeryLucky888	Texansavg 68¢	$30.7K	$29.9K	-$673.41	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
AN Anon455	Texansavg 67¢	$13.4K	$13.3K	-$100	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
38 38791873984189	Texansavg 66.3¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	+$30.41	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GM gmpm2	Texansavg 67¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$31	54% 385-331 (716)
DA darkumbreon88	Texansavg 67¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$22.54	64% 2142-1184 (3326)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Chargersavg 34¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$30	48% 214-229 (443)
65 6512395314597884	Texansavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
NM NM-P	Texansavg 67.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$5	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-P	Texansavg 68.6¢	$583	$573.75	-$9.25	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
0xheavy888	Texansavg 67¢	$335	$332.5	-$2.5	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Texansavg 68¢	$204.68	$203.18	-$1.51	41% 3599-5108 (8707)
OD OddstormCTR	Chargersavg 32¢	$178.59	$181.38	+$2.79	48% 8324-8883 (17207)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Texansavg 69¢	$157.71	$154.28	-$3.43	49% 410-432 (842)
CI cigarettes	Texansavg 69¢	$138	$135	-$3	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Chargersavg 31.1¢	$74.29	$77.68	+$3.39	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texansavg 68.5¢	$70.23	$69.44	-$0.79	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
tradecraft<$100	Texansavg 66.2¢	$37.75	$37.9	+$0.15	51% 6683-6420 (13103)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Chargersavg 31¢	$34.23	$35.89	+$1.66	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
GH ghorrock<$100	Texansavg 68.3¢	$27.03	$26.33	-$0.71	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
SE sentrio<$100	Texansavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.38	-$0.03	50% 27934-27381 (55315)

BreakTheBankCTR

Chargers

Invested

$99,047.7

Value

$100.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

Kch-TempCTR

Chargers

Invested

$62,164.55

Value

$64.5K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

52%

244-229 (473)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Texans

Invested

$33,999.85

Value

$33.7K

PnL

-$249.91

Record

53%

680-594 (1274)

ferrariChampions2026

Texans

Invested

$33,437.39

Value

$33.2K

PnL

-$249.53

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

VeryLucky888

Texans

Invested

$30,722.49

Value

$29.9K

PnL

-$673.41

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Anon455

Texans

Invested

$13,400

Value

$13.3K

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

38791873984189

Texans

Invested

$4,720.69

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$30.41

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

gmpm2

Texans

Invested

$4,154

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$31

Record

54%

385-331 (716)

darkumbreon88

Texans

Invested

$3,020.02

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$22.54

Record

64%

2142-1184 (3326)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Chargers

Invested

$2,040

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$30

Record

48%

214-229 (443)

6512395314597884

Texans

Invested

$1,340

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

NM-P

Texans

Invested

$1,169.99

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-P

Texans

Invested

$583

Value

$573.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

0xheavy888

Texans

Invested

$335

Value

$332.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Texans

Invested

$204.68

Value

$203.18

PnL

-$1.51

Record

41%

3599-5108 (8707)

OddstormCTR

Chargers

Invested

$178.59

Value

$181.38

PnL

+$2.79

Record

48%

8324-8883 (17207)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Texans

Invested

$157.71

Value

$154.28

PnL

-$3.43

Record

49%

410-432 (842)

cigarettes

Texans

Invested

$138

Value

$135

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$74.29

Value

$77.68

PnL

+$3.39

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

Pan9X<$100

Texans

Invested

$70.23

Value

$69.44

PnL

-$0.79

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

tradecraft<$100

Texans

Invested

$37.75

Value

$37.9

PnL

+$0.15

Record

51%

6683-6420 (13103)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Chargers

Invested

$34.23

Value

$35.89

PnL

+$1.66

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

ghorrock<$100

Texans

Invested

$27.03

Value

$26.33

PnL

-$0.71

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

sentrio<$100

Texans

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.38

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Research grade

NeutralChargers at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Chargers

6 of 24 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Texans 67%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

70h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Chargers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTexans 67% · 6

Diverging

sharpTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrTexans 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedTexans 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Texans 67% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Chargers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.