Consensus PnL -$35K · win rate 46% (461–535, n=996) · was PM monthly #604 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-35.3K
Record
461W / 535L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 996 settled
Batting Avg
53.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1945
Source
PM monthly #604
Trades
293
Markets
1,047
Volume
$505.9K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova WildcatsNotre Dame Fighting Irish $282 · now 8¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Villanova Wildcats)
- Counter-Strike: naocopulas vs Low Cortisol (BO3) - Gamers Club Masters Playoffsnaocopulas $38 · now 14¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Low Cortisol)
Specialties
760 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 50¢- College Football
+15 pts
side won 73% of 56 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +17%
- NFL
+15 pts
side won 65% of 52 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+5 pts
side won 54% of 453 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 41% of 17 at an average 56¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI +19%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 19% of 144)
- 30–50¢: 28%(won 41% of 213)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 70% of 257)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 89% of 146)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.