Consensus PnL -$337 · no settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #443 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
-$337.4
Record
0W / 0L
Win Rate
—
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#628
Source
PM monthly #443
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
79
Markets
10
Volume
$7.6K
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Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 5 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?No $2.9K · now 85¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (68% of 31)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?No $1.9K · now 74¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (75% of 33)
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?No $567 · now 54¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (44% of 15)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?Yes $36 · now 75¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (63% of 23)
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?No $26 · now 41¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
7 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 58¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 71122's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 0% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 57%(won 100% of 4)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.