Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?

19 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (68%) · No at 85¢ · $229K held · ends Nov 11

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 68%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$229.1K

Combined PnL

$-7.2K

Smart Money Entry

88¢ → 85.2¢

-3% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 28 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$212.3K

Total Shares232,496

Combined PnL$-7.1K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares100,745

Combined PnL-$134.76

No — 68%Yes — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Electricy	Noavg 88.6¢	$84.1K	$80.3K	$-3.8K	— 0-4 (4)
Parz1vaI	Noavg 87.7¢	$82.0K	$79.3K	-$349.47	72% 1106-420 (1526)
Rex416	Noavg 86.7¢	$14.4K	$12.7K	-$559.74	— 4-0 (4)
KU kukubaja	Noavg 87.6¢	$12.3K	$10.9K	-$374.93	— 5-5 (10)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 11.8¢	$9.6K	$6.8K	-$170.85	— 0-7 (7)
seal7	Noavg 83.6¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$75.13	0% 0-77 (77)
arjennnnn	Noavg 95.1¢	$5.6K	$5.0K	-$617.24	68% 517-238 (755)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 9.3¢	$2.5K	$4.1K	+$1.6K	0% 1-266 (267)
clazzy1	Noavg 87.2¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$73.53	0% 0-37 (37)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 89.7¢	$3.8K	$3.4K	-$128.2	— 5-5 (10)
71 71122	Noavg 91.6¢	$3.8K	$2.9K	-$413.28	— 4-2 (6)
KL klli27	Noavg 81.7¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$63.17	27% 499-1343 (1842)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 86.8¢	$3.5K	$1.9K	-$176.35	— 1-10 (11)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR	Yesavg 21.8¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$925.97	— 0-5 (5)
PB pbshineCTR	Yesavg 12.4¢	$1.8K	$1.3K	-$238.36	— 0-3 (3)
Relaccsed	Noavg 85.6¢	$1.4K	$918.06	+$16.74	— 4-1 (5)
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 18.9¢	$1.7K	$839.08	-$501.58	0% 0-332 (332)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$836.98	$819.97	-$17.01	85% 441-76 (517)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.3¢	$545.81	$589.36	+$43.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.7¢	$291.17	$230.61	-$60.56
WA WarriorH	Noavg 85.7¢	$1.2K	$622.05	-$16.49	— 0-12 (12)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$509.47	$559.4	+$49.94	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
└ No leg	Noavg 74.1¢	$367.09	$427	+$59.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.8¢	$142.37	$132.41	-$9.97
SP SPLPB	Noavg 87.1¢	$2.2K	$541.96	-$38.59	23% 510-1692 (2202)
DG DG-NO	Noavg 86.7¢	$520	$507.6	-$12.4	36% 389-679 (1068)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 75.4¢	$346.09	$317	-$17.28	— 1-9 (10)
HoshinoAI	Noavg 88.1¢	$12.9K	$266.88	-$394.07	— 10-8 (18)
pup1CTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$140.84	$260.43	+$119.59	— 1-7 (8)

Electricy

Invested

$84,106.7

Value

$80.3K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$82,022.27

Value

$79.3K

PnL

-$349.47

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

Rex416

Invested

$14,391.63

Value

$12.7K

PnL

-$559.74

Record

—

4-0 (4)

kukubaja

Invested

$12,274.38

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$374.93

Record

—

5-5 (10)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$9,572.92

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$170.85

Record

—

0-7 (7)

seal7

Invested

$6,417.94

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$75.13

Record

0-77 (77)

arjennnnn

Invested

$5,608.62

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$617.24

Record

68%

517-238 (755)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,530.45

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

1-266 (267)

clazzy1

Invested

$4,243.48

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$73.53

Record

0-37 (37)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$3,811.52

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$128.2

Record

—

5-5 (10)

71122

Invested

$3,803.24

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$413.28

Record

—

4-2 (6)

klli27

Invested

$3,015.16

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$63.17

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$3,493.95

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$176.35

Record

—

1-10 (11)

AlphaBetaGamma2357CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,592.89

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$925.97

Record

—

0-5 (5)

pbshineCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,806.75

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$238.36

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Relaccsed

Invested

$1,407.05

Value

$918.06

PnL

+$16.74

Record

—

4-1 (5)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,699.99

Value

$839.08

PnL

-$501.58

Record

0-332 (332)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$836.98

Value

$819.97

PnL

-$17.01

Record

85%

441-76 (517)

Both legs:

No$545.8178.3¢+$43.55

Yes$291.1717.7¢-$60.56

WarriorH

Invested

$1,222.04

Value

$622.05

PnL

-$16.49

Record

—

0-12 (12)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$509.47

Value

$559.4

PnL

+$49.94

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

Both legs:

No$367.0974.1¢+$59.9

Yes$142.3714.8¢-$9.97

SPLPB

Invested

$2,238.93

Value

$541.96

PnL

-$38.59

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

DG-NO

Invested

$520

Value

$507.6

PnL

-$12.4

Record

36%

389-679 (1068)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$346.09

Value

$317

PnL

-$17.28

Record

—

1-9 (10)

HoshinoAI

Invested

$12,898.6

Value

$266.88

PnL

-$394.07

Record

—

10-8 (18)

pup1CTR

Yes

Invested

$140.84

Value

$260.43

PnL

+$119.59

Record

—

1-7 (8)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 28 top traders (68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Late

110h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.8%

85.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.