Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$72.71

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 93.8¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,160

Combined PnL-$102.31

Yes6 traders

Total Value$704.29

Total Shares16,007

Combined PnL+$29.6

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV Avamax	Noavg 96.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$98.18	81% 421-101 (522)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR	Yesavg 4.2¢	$29.03	$285.02	+$154.76	49% 274-288 (562)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$171.16	$224.81	+$53.65	45% 112-138 (250)
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 5.3¢	$106.25	$110	+$3.75	40% 704-1062 (1766)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 97¢	$162.33	$108.28	-$4.12	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$263.37	$81.9	-$181.47	54% 229-195 (424)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$3.38	$2.42	-$0.96	50% 1093-1094 (2187)
HO Hourglass<$100	Noavg 98¢	$1.28	$1.27	-$0.02	77% 8889-2658 (11547)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$0.27	$0.14	-$0.13	50% 357-357 (714)

Avamax

Invested

$2,947.64

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$98.18

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

PhongLeXBTCTR

Yes

Invested

$29.03

Value

$285.02

PnL

+$154.76

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR

Yes

Invested

$171.16

Value

$224.81

PnL

+$53.65

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$106.25

Value

$110

PnL

+$3.75

Record

40%

704-1062 (1766)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$162.33

Value

$108.28

PnL

-$4.12

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$263.37

Value

$81.9

PnL

-$181.47

Record

54%

229-195 (424)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.38

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.96

Record

50%

1093-1094 (2187)

Hourglass<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.27

PnL

-$0.02

Record

77%

8889-2658 (11547)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.13

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

726h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.9%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.