Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (54%) · Yes at 60¢ · $47K held · ends Nov 11

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 54%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.2K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

34.4¢ → 60¢

+74% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$16.2K

Total Shares26,837

Combined PnL+$7.1K

No6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares14,189

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Yes — 54%No — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
seal7ARB<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$19.0K	$12.3K	$-6.7K	0% 0-77 (77)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$14.8K	$8.0K	$-6.7K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$17.04
Parz1vaIARB<$100	Yesavg 35.9¢	$10.4K	$9.8K	+$3.2K	72% 1106-420 (1526)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.9¢	$4.5K	$7.5K	+$4.4K
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$3.6K	$2.3K	$-1.2K
smellyEllie	Yesavg 26.2¢	$2.8K	$6.4K	+$3.5K	— 0-7 (7)
32 328.400.fund	Yesavg 23.6¢	$1.5K	$3.7K	+$2.2K	55% 42-34 (76)
TR troim	Yesavg 52.2¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$510	0% 0-332 (332)
clazzy1CTR	Noavg 73.3¢	$3.9K	$1.9K	$-2.0K	0% 0-37 (37)
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Noavg 52.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$48.55	84% 481-91 (572)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.3¢	$851.62	$1.2K	+$370.98
└ No leg	Noavg 52.8¢	$956.99	$634.57	-$322.42
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR	Noavg 23¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$584.5	— 5-5 (10)
Humble-Monk	Yesavg 26.8¢	$599.81	$1.3K	+$722.45	0% 0-83 (83)
PB pbshine	Yesavg 65.1¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$136.3	— 0-3 (3)
G.Hchen	Yesavg 62.9¢	$1.4K	$859.51	-$88.53	0% 0-96 (96)
pIebeCTR	Noavg 40¢	$1.2K	$745.42	-$15.18	—
Rex416CTR	Noavg 73.1¢	$1.5K	$700	-$762.06	— 4-0 (4)
KU kukubajaARB<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.0K	$610.99	+$1.2K	— 5-5 (10)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.1¢	$260.92	$383.5	+$1.2K
└ No leg	Noavg 42¢	$273	$227.5	-$45.5
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$455.32	$458.6	+$3.28	41% 3023-4424 (7447)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45¢	$237.3	$342.81	+$105.51
└ No leg	Noavg 65.9¢	$218.02	$115.79	-$102.24
RelaccsedARB<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$312.79	$310.18	+$47.39	— 4-1 (5)
└ No leg	Noavg 38.8¢	$212.79	$192.19	-$20.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25¢	$50	$118	+$68
HoshinoAIARB<$100	Yesavg 42.1¢	$2.7K	$201.11	-$111.87	— 10-8 (18)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.1¢	$103.55	$148.79	+$2.84
└ No leg	Noavg 48.9¢	$64.74	$52.32	-$114.71
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 47.8¢	$320.42	$177.17	-$8.65	— 0-12 (12)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.8¢	$84.62	$115.16	+$21.76
└ No leg	Noavg 41.8¢	$74.13	$62.01	-$30.41
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Yesavg 72¢	$90.9	$84.6	-$6.3	— 1-9 (10)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 72¢	$64.8	$53.1	-$11.7
└ No leg	Noavg 29¢	$26.1	$31.5	+$5.4
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$257.75	$78.97	-$17.36	— 1-10 (11)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49.3¢	$41.43	$49.57	-$0.76
└ No leg	Noavg 61.5¢	$51.64	$29.4	-$16.59
arjennnnnCTR	Noavg 74¢	$148	$70	-$78	69% 519-238 (757)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 37¢	$27.75	$26.25	-$1.5	50% 4534-4452 (8986)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 51.9¢	$1.4K	$21.27	+$262.29	66% 4070-2087 (6157)

seal7ARB<$100

Invested

$19,007.55

Value

$12.3K

PnL

$-6.7K

Record

0-77 (77)

Both legs:

No$14,756.0271.9¢$-6.7K

Yes$4,251.5360.8¢+$17.04

Parz1vaIARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$10,352.96

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

Both legs:

Yes$4,490.2535.9¢+$4.4K

No$3,606.4162.1¢$-1.2K

smellyEllie

Yes

Invested

$2,825.73

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

—

0-7 (7)

328.400.fund

Yes

Invested

$1,490.9

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

55%

42-34 (76)

troim

Yes

Invested

$2,089.99

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$510

Record

0-332 (332)

clazzy1CTR

Invested

$3,896.39

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

0-37 (37)

PoligarchARB<$100

Invested

$1,808.61

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$48.55

Record

84%

481-91 (572)

Both legs:

Yes$851.6245.3¢+$370.98

No$956.9952.8¢-$322.42

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR

Invested

$1,114.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$584.5

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Humble-Monk

Yes

Invested

$599.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$722.45

Record

0-83 (83)

pbshine

Yes

Invested

$1,455.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$136.3

Record

—

0-3 (3)

G.Hchen

Yes

Invested

$1,421.36

Value

$859.51

PnL

-$88.53

Record

0-96 (96)

pIebeCTR

Invested

$1,201.8

Value

$745.42

PnL

-$15.18

Record

—

Rex416CTR

Invested

$1,462.06

Value

$700

PnL

-$762.06

Record

—

4-0 (4)

kukubajaARB<$100

Invested

$2,027.77

Value

$610.99

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

5-5 (10)

Both legs:

Yes$260.9240.1¢+$1.2K

No$27342¢-$45.5

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$455.32

Value

$458.6

PnL

+$3.28

Record

41%

3023-4424 (7447)

Both legs:

Yes$237.345¢+$105.51

No$218.0265.9¢-$102.24

RelaccsedARB<$100

Invested

$312.79

Value

$310.18

PnL

+$47.39

Record

—

4-1 (5)

Both legs:

Invested

$2,675.22

Value

$201.11

PnL

-$111.87

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Both legs:

Yes$103.5542.1¢+$2.84

No$64.7448.9¢-$114.71

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$320.42

Value

$177.17

PnL

-$8.65

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

Yes$84.6247.8¢+$21.76

No$74.1341.8¢-$30.41

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.9

Value

$84.6

PnL

-$6.3

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

Yes$64.872¢-$11.7

No$26.129¢+$5.4

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Invested

$257.75

Value

$78.97

PnL

-$17.36

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

Yes$41.4349.3¢-$0.76

No$51.6461.5¢-$16.59

arjennnnnCTR

Invested

$148

Value

$70

PnL

-$78

Record

69%

519-238 (757)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$27.75

Value

$26.25

PnL

-$1.5

Record

50%

4534-4452 (8986)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$1,380.41

Value

$21.27

PnL

+$262.29

Record

66%

4070-2087 (6157)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 13 top traders (54%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.