US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (42%) · Yes at 60¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 22

Yes60¢No40¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 42%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$129.38

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 59.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares7,437

Combined PnL+$439.88

No7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares8,331

Combined PnL-$310.5

Yes — 42%No — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DragontreeARB<$100	Yesavg 55¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$199.1	— 0-2 (2)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$238.48
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$437.58
Car	Yesavg 55.5¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	+$183.9	69% 1400-641 (2041)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 43¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$95.18	46% 459-547 (1006)
pIebe	Yesavg 51¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$201.1	—
KL klli27ARB<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$11.96	27% 499-1343 (1842)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53¢	$716.01	$804.07	+$88.06
└ No leg	Noavg 48.4¢	$654.08	$554.06	-$100.02
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$21.55	— 0-12 (12)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 51.2¢	$639.08	$743.4	+$105.3
└ No leg	Noavg 50.1¢	$666.37	$544.89	-$126.85
LolakisCTR	Noavg 43.8¢	$2.2K	$729.74	-$90.06	0% 0-31 (31)
RA rainbowliliesCTR	Noavg 47¢	$865.62	$410	-$41.59	— 0-3 (3)
Zaratustra	Yesavg 56.1¢	$376.56	$399.34	+$22.78	—
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$371.9	$258.08	-$7.92	— 1-10 (11)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$128.4	$152.8	+$24.4
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$128.4	$105.29	-$32.32
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 51.5¢	$206	$238	+$32	48% 1222-1315 (2537)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 46.6¢	$185.9	$184.1	-$1.8	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 53.3¢	$86.6	$96.74	+$10.14
└ No leg	Noavg 46.6¢	$99.3	$87.35	-$11.94
HoshinoAICTR	Noavg 45.4¢	$981.62	$162.44	-$55.07	— 10-8 (18)
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$160.82	$160.33	-$0.49	— 1-9 (10)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.5¢	$90.18	$94.92	+$4.74
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$70.64	$65.41	-$5.23
HaradwaithCTR	Noavg 48.2¢	$471.41	$129.74	-$26.22	— 8-9 (17)
71 71122CTR	Noavg 46¢	$353.13	$25.75	-$3.14	— 4-2 (6)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$11.51	$11.61	+$0.1	— 12-2 (14)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$25.17	$7.07	+$0.76	51% 265-255 (520)

DragontreeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$5,336.98

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$199.1

Record

—

0-2 (2)

Both legs:

Yes$2,905.9655¢+$238.48

No$2,431.0250¢-$437.58

Car

Yes

Invested

$2,776.1

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$183.9

Record

69%

1400-641 (2041)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$2,046.37

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$95.18

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$1,209.72

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$201.1

Record

—

klli27ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,370.09

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$11.96

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

Both legs:

Yes$716.0153¢+$88.06

No$654.0848.4¢-$100.02

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$1,524.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$21.55

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

Yes$639.0851.2¢+$105.3

No$666.3750.1¢-$126.85

LolakisCTR

Invested

$2,188.75

Value

$729.74

PnL

-$90.06

Record

0-31 (31)

rainbowliliesCTR

Invested

$865.62

Value

$410

PnL

-$41.59

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Zaratustra

Yes

Invested

$376.56

Value

$399.34

PnL

+$22.78

Record

—

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$371.9

Value

$258.08

PnL

-$7.92

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

Yes$128.450¢+$24.4

No$128.450¢-$32.32

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$206

Value

$238

PnL

+$32

Record

48%

1222-1315 (2537)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$185.9

Value

$184.1

PnL

-$1.8

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

Both legs:

Yes$86.653.3¢+$10.14

No$99.346.6¢-$11.94

HoshinoAICTR

Invested

$981.62

Value

$162.44

PnL

-$55.07

Record

—

10-8 (18)

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$160.82

Value

$160.33

PnL

-$0.49

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

Yes$90.1856.5¢+$4.74

No$70.6444.3¢-$5.23

HaradwaithCTR

Invested

$471.41

Value

$129.74

PnL

-$26.22

Record

—

8-9 (17)

71122CTR

Invested

$353.13

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$3.14

Record

—

4-2 (6)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.51

Value

$11.61

PnL

+$0.1

Record

—

12-2 (14)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$25.17

Value

$7.07

PnL

+$0.76

Record

51%

265-255 (520)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 12 top traders (42%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.5%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$65.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

165.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.