US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 54¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 15

Yes47¢No53¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.8K

Combined PnL

-$405.73

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 53.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares20,828

Combined PnL-$615.89

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,279

Combined PnL+$210.15

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN anoin123	Noavg 57.2¢	$8.3K	$7.9K	-$463.11	46% 459-547 (1006)
pIebe	Noavg 58.1¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$110.94	—
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$20.89	41% 3010-4414 (7424)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$13.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47¢	$689.62	$682.28	-$7.34
DragontreeCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$125	— 0-2 (2)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Noavg 57.8¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$11.67	— 0-12 (12)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.8¢	$590.48	$551.63	-$42.22
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$439.31	$469.91	+$30.55
HaradwaithARB<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$850.5	$660.61	-$11.14	— 8-9 (17)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.6¢	$517.59	$494.1	-$24.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.5¢	$153.72	$166.51	+$13.24
LolakisCTR	Yesavg 44¢	$2.5K	$581.06	+$30.39	0% 0-31 (31)
71 71122	Noavg 56¢	$587.5	$567	-$20.5	— 4-2 (6)
KL klli27ARB<$100	Noavg 55.8¢	$394.05	$389.55	-$4.5	27% 499-1343 (1842)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.8¢	$217.26	$210.36	-$6.9
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.4¢	$176.78	$179.19	+$2.41
RA rainbowlilies	Noavg 56.2¢	$1.5K	$300.2	-$21.33	— 0-3 (3)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100	Noavg 56¢	$251.94	$238	-$0	— 1-10 (11)
└ No leg	Noavg 56¢	$133.28	$128.52	-$4.76
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.6¢	$103.83	$109.48	+$4.76
Tenebrus7CTR	Yesavg 43.2¢	$1.1K	$232.48	+$55.81	0% 0-41 (41)
SU SulkingCryptoARB<$100	Noavg 58.9¢	$78.43	$77.4	-$1.03	— 1-9 (10)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.9¢	$45.6	$41.8	-$3.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.4¢	$32.83	$35.6	+$2.78
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$11.93	$12.14	+$0.21	— 12-2 (14)
HoshinoAICTR	Yesavg 41¢	$2.2K	$1.78	-$1.26	— 10-8 (18)

anoin123

Invested

$8,342.99

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$463.11

Record

46%

459-547 (1006)

pIebe

Invested

$3,432.86

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$110.94

Record

—

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,735.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$20.89

Record

41%

3010-4414 (7424)

Both legs:

No$1,045.9754.2¢-$13.55

Yes$689.6247¢-$7.34

DragontreeCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,025

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$125

Record

—

0-2 (2)

WarriorHARB<$100

Invested

$1,070.96

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$11.67

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Both legs:

No$590.4857.8¢-$42.22

Yes$439.3143¢+$30.55

HaradwaithARB<$100

Invested

$850.5

Value

$660.61

PnL

-$11.14

Record

—

8-9 (17)

Both legs:

No$517.5956.6¢-$24.38

Yes$153.7242.5¢+$13.24

LolakisCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,518.23

Value

$581.06

PnL

+$30.39

Record

0-31 (31)

71122

Invested

$587.5

Value

$567

PnL

-$20.5

Record

—

4-2 (6)

klli27ARB<$100

Invested

$394.05

Value

$389.55

PnL

-$4.5

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

Both legs:

No$217.2655.8¢-$6.9

Yes$176.7845.4¢+$2.41

rainbowlilies

Invested

$1,488.74

Value

$300.2

PnL

-$21.33

Record

—

0-3 (3)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FARB<$100

Invested

$251.94

Value

$238

PnL

-$0

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Both legs:

No$133.2856¢-$4.76

Yes$103.8343.6¢+$4.76

Tenebrus7CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,099.21

Value

$232.48

PnL

+$55.81

Record

0-41 (41)

SulkingCryptoARB<$100

Invested

$78.43

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$1.03

Record

—

1-9 (10)

Both legs:

No$45.658.9¢-$3.8

Yes$32.8342.4¢+$2.78

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.93

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$0.21

Record

—

12-2 (14)

HoshinoAICTR

Yes

Invested

$2,172.01

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$1.26

Record

—

10-8 (18)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Late

50h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.5%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$83.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

183.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.