Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

27 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 81¢ · $124K held · ends Nov 4

Yes81¢No19¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$124.5K

Combined PnL

$399.89

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 27 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

27 of 39 top traders (69%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes81%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes27 traders

Total Value$117.5K

Total Shares146,463

Combined PnL+$3.0K

No12 traders

Total Value$7.0K

Total Shares36,843

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 88% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 66% · 29

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 80.2¢	$26.6K	$26.7K	+$106.79	38% 20-32 (52)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 81.1¢	$21.4K	$21.1K	-$145.81	58% 705-521 (1226)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Yesavg 80.4¢	$14.1K	$14.1K	+$12.37	96% 328-13 (341)
CO cocos228	Yesavg 78.5¢	$11.2K	$11.4K	+$420.99	72% 68-27 (95)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 79.5¢	$8.7K	$8.8K	+$105.18	58% 182-132 (314)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 81.9¢	$8.2K	$8.0K	-$139.44	36% 190-333 (523)
TheOneto3CTR	Noavg 18¢	$3.2K	$5.4K	-$316.24	50% 464-457 (921)
SQ SquirrelTheMerchant	Yesavg 68.9¢	$4.4K	$5.4K	+$939.07	55% 78-65 (143)
mombil	Yesavg 60.3¢	$2.2K	$2.9K	+$727.94	55% 1191-966 (2157)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 57.3¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$826.35	68% 2074-957 (3031)
bernardbulletin	Yesavg 74.5¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	+$121.08	69% 987-450 (1437)
Ryxon21	Yesavg 82.4¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$58.25	71% 318-130 (448)
JSG3	Yesavg 81¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$15	58% 14-10 (24)
Car	Yesavg 81.3¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$75	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
4751346	Yesavg 80.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$9.39	72% 1257-483 (1740)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 80¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.5	82% 1758-394 (2152)
tetrase	Yesavg 80¢	$800	$800	+$5	61% 839-543 (1382)
wagwanshawty	Yesavg 81¢	$809.99	$799.99	-$5	— 10-5 (15)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 76.4¢	$817.72	$694.49	-$8.52	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
ImJustKenCTR	Noavg 81.8¢	$2.6K	$611.8	$-2.0K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
Optimus-	Yesavg 81¢	$561.43	$554.5	+$10.4	61% 1200-767 (1967)
12 123987456CTR	Noavg 28¢	$534.44	$372.2	-$162.24	45% 1905-2348 (4253)
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR	Noavg 21.8¢	$273.19	$198.18	-$10.06	53% 3725-3239 (6964)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 20.5¢	$48.81	$159.05	+$8.23	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
RI Richidd	Yesavg 83.8¢	$160	$153.69	-$6.31	46% 47-56 (103)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$26,605.72

Value

$26.7K

PnL

+$106.79

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$21,388.18

Value

$21.1K

PnL

-$145.81

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Yes

Invested

$14,096.43

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$12.37

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

cocos228

Yes

Invested

$11,172.96

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$420.99

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$8,724.05

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$105.18

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$8,189.44

Value

$8.0K

PnL

-$139.44

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

TheOneto3CTR

Invested

$3,153.89

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$316.24

Record

50%

464-457 (921)

SquirrelTheMerchant

Yes

Invested

$4,447.98

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$939.07

Record

55%

78-65 (143)

mombil

Yes

Invested

$2,174.65

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$727.94

Record

55%

1191-966 (2157)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$2,041.03

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$826.35

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

bernardbulletin

Yes

Invested

$2,562.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$121.08

Record

69%

987-450 (1437)

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$2,574

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$58.25

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

JSG3

Yes

Invested

$2,430

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

Car

Yes

Invested

$2,475

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$75

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

4751346

Yes

Invested

$1,849.37

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$9.39

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$1,200

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.5

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

tetrase

Yes

Invested

$800

Value

$800

PnL

+$5

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

wagwanshawty

Yes

Invested

$809.99

Value

$799.99

PnL

-$5

Record

—

10-5 (15)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$817.72

Value

$694.49

PnL

-$8.52

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

ImJustKenCTR

Invested

$2,632.69

Value

$611.8

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Optimus-

Yes

Invested

$561.43

Value

$554.5

PnL

+$10.4

Record

61%

1200-767 (1967)

123987456CTR

Invested

$534.44

Value

$372.2

PnL

-$162.24

Record

45%

1905-2348 (4253)

YouSayUpISayDownCTR

Invested

$273.19

Value

$198.18

PnL

-$10.06

Record

53%

3725-3239 (6964)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$48.81

Value

$159.05

PnL

+$8.23

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

Richidd

Yes

Invested

$160

Value

$153.69

PnL

-$6.31

Record

46%

47-56 (103)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 81%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

27 of 39 top traders (69%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

25 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

17 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

68% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 80% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 88% · 8

Aligned

ctrNo 64% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 80% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 66% · 29

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.