Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

31 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 74¢ · $196K held · ends Nov 4

Yes74¢No26¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$196.1K

Combined PnL

$75.55

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 73.5¢

+13% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 45 top traders (69%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes31 traders

Total Value$147.3K

Total Shares201,410

Combined PnL+$16.4K

No14 traders

Total Value$48.8K

Total Shares185,195

Combined PnL$-16.3K

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 64% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 31

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ScottyNooo	Yesavg 58.8¢	$26.2K	$32.9K	+$6.6K	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 38.9¢	$38.4K	$26.2K	$-12.2K	47% 474-534 (1008)
ME Melody626	Yesavg 73.8¢	$23.4K	$23.4K	-$91.13	58% 705-521 (1226)
JSG3	Yesavg 68¢	$15.3K	$16.4K	+$1.2K	58% 14-10 (24)
SU supersmard	Yesavg 62¢	$9.3K	$11.0K	+$1.7K	39% 46-71 (117)
BO botbotCTR	Noavg 31¢	$12.4K	$10.4K	$-1.8K	43% 314-418 (732)
FA Fancyi	Yesavg 67.4¢	$8.1K	$8.5K	+$710.57	68% 56-26 (82)
TH thebug44	Yesavg 69¢	$8.0K	$8.5K	+$522.95	33% 42-86 (128)
MO Monopoly_Money	Yesavg 61¢	$1.5K	$7.3K	+$1.2K	63% 159-95 (254)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 68.9¢	$6.4K	$6.8K	+$423.03	58% 182-132 (314)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 69.3¢	$6.4K	$6.8K	+$383.16	38% 20-32 (52)
twinna	Yesavg 68¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$412.5	50% 92-93 (185)
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836	Yesavg 68¢	$4.4K	$4.7K	+$352.04	61% 203-132 (335)
IC ic4creamCTR	Noavg 30¢	$4.4K	$3.9K	-$514.01	59% 2660-1871 (4531)
BigRabbit	Yesavg 54¢	$2.7K	$3.6K	+$975	40% 704-1061 (1765)
DZ dzsibenaja	Yesavg 57¢	$2.8K	$3.6K	+$809.98	88% 171-24 (195)
FL flawfenceCTR	Noavg 41.1¢	$4.5K	$2.9K	$-1.6K	46% 271-319 (590)
BigMackyGCTR	Noavg 27¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$44.43	20% 108-423 (531)
EA EatprayloveCTR	Noavg 26.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$10	57% 766-585 (1351)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 64.5¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$186.12	69% 804-359 (1163)
GollumGekko	Yesavg 55¢	$639.87	$857.75	+$217.88	68% 2074-957 (3031)
FO Folletin	Yesavg 70¢	$706.3	$736.57	+$35.31	69% 423-188 (611)
Tenebrus7	Yesavg 67.1¢	$725.02	$730.02	+$5	73% 2952-1072 (4024)
Car	Yesavg 67¢	$669.99	$729.99	+$65	67% 4164-2026 (6190)
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Yesavg 54¢	$534.99	$729.99	+$195	82% 1758-394 (2152)

ScottyNooo

Yes

Invested

$26,219.61

Value

$32.9K

PnL

+$6.6K

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$38,393.59

Value

$26.2K

PnL

$-12.2K

Record

47%

474-534 (1008)

Melody626

Yes

Invested

$23,444.71

Value

$23.4K

PnL

-$91.13

Record

58%

705-521 (1226)

JSG3

Yes

Invested

$15,299.99

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

supersmard

Yes

Invested

$9,325.49

Value

$11.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

39%

46-71 (117)

botbotCTR

Invested

$12,399.98

Value

$10.4K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

43%

314-418 (732)

Fancyi

Yes

Invested

$8,109

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$710.57

Record

68%

56-26 (82)

thebug44

Yes

Invested

$7,988.37

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$522.95

Record

33%

42-86 (128)

Monopoly_Money

Yes

Invested

$1,533.54

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

63%

159-95 (254)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$6,395.85

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$423.03

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$6,417.08

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$383.16

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

twinna

Yes

Invested

$5,099.99

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$412.5

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836

Yes

Invested

$4,352.51

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$352.04

Record

61%

203-132 (335)

ic4creamCTR

Invested

$4,405.8

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$514.01

Record

59%

2660-1871 (4531)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$2,700

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$975

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

dzsibenaja

Yes

Invested

$2,798.12

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$809.98

Record

88%

171-24 (195)

flawfenceCTR

Invested

$4,519.92

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

BigMackyGCTR

Invested

$2,399.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$44.43

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

EatprayloveCTR

Invested

$2,130

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$1,805.46

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$186.12

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

GollumGekko

Yes

Invested

$639.87

Value

$857.75

PnL

+$217.88

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Folletin

Yes

Invested

$706.3

Value

$736.57

PnL

+$35.31

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

Tenebrus7

Yes

Invested

$725.02

Value

$730.02

PnL

+$5

Record

73%

2952-1072 (4024)

Car

Yes

Invested

$669.99

Value

$729.99

PnL

+$65

Record

67%

4164-2026 (6190)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Yes

Invested

$534.99

Value

$729.99

PnL

+$195

Record

82%

1758-394 (2152)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 74%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

31 of 45 top traders (69%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

31 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

28 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 64% · 14

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 70% · 20

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 31

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.3%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.