Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

20 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 79¢ · $190K held · ends Nov 4

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$189.9K

Combined PnL

$26.2K

Smart Money Entry

66.6¢ → 78.5¢

+18% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 79%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes20 traders

Total Value$179.3K

Total Shares227,249

Combined PnL+$31.4K

No9 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares22,424

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL flawfence	Yesavg 50.8¢	$40.5K	$62.0K	+$21.6K	46% 271-319 (590)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 77.9¢	$28.9K	$58.2K	+$5.3K	38% 20-32 (52)
mrworldwide	Yesavg 69¢	$11.4K	$13.1K	+$1.5K	69% 804-359 (1163)
BiDiFakePolls	Yesavg 75.6¢	$12.2K	$12.6K	+$389.47	58% 182-132 (314)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05	Yesavg 77.9¢	$9.7K	$9.7K	+$11.91	36% 190-333 (523)
FU FulguratorARB<$100	Noavg 33¢	$7.3K	$5.7K	$-1.7K	92% 61-5 (66)
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$4.8K	$3.2K	$-1.7K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$47.36
Ryxon21	Yesavg 77¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$67.19	71% 318-130 (448)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 77¢	$4.5K	$4.6K	+$58.45	69% 156-69 (225)
CL ClickKlackClickCTR	Noavg 46.7¢	$9.0K	$4.2K	$-4.9K	99% 174-1 (175)
PI pieped	Yesavg 75.6¢	$2.9K	$3.8K	+$265.54	42% 71-100 (171)
Zaratustra	Yesavg 53.9¢	$1.7K	$3.2K	+$1.1K	62% 351-214 (565)
BA balerinacapuchina	Yesavg 79¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$20	72% 176-70 (246)
BR brte	Yesavg 54¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$735	— 10-6 (16)
mountaindewd	Yesavg 50¢	$350	$553	+$196	54% 344-290 (634)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Noavg 22.4¢	$340.73	$370.67	-$173.98	50% 1658-1652 (3310)
CO cowcat	Yesavg 52.3¢	$146.64	$217.2	+$70.56	53% 1560-1362 (2922)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 68.3¢	$1.4K	$178.81	+$24.45	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
RO rocky42019CTR	Noavg 21.5¢	$162.98	$161.84	-$1.14	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
PA pantomime	Yesavg 37¢	$72.62	$155.05	+$80.47	52% 1287-1198 (2485)
twinna<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$41	$79	+$37	50% 92-93 (185)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR	Noavg 44.5¢	$240.37	$74.88	-$120.49	39% 1780-2832 (4612)
TimeTraveler<$100	Yesavg 46.9¢	$33.56	$56.49	+$22.57	41% 1986-2802 (4788)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 72.1¢	$234.38	$54.98	+$2.53	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
probabilityCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$68.05	$37.4	-$30.65	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
TH TheImpasseCTR<$100	Noavg 45.5¢	$55.14	$26.64	-$29.1	22% 145-528 (673)

flawfence

Yes

Invested

$40,456.12

Value

$62.0K

PnL

+$21.6K

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$28,854.11

Value

$58.2K

PnL

+$5.3K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

mrworldwide

Yes

Invested

$11,414.32

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

69%

804-359 (1163)

BiDiFakePolls

Yes

Invested

$12,226.82

Value

$12.6K

PnL

+$389.47

Record

58%

182-132 (314)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05

Yes

Invested

$9,655.13

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$11.91

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

FulguratorARB<$100

Invested

$7,330.21

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

92%

61-5 (66)

Both legs:

No$4,804.6133¢$-1.7K

Yes$2,525.680¢-$47.36

Ryxon21

Yes

Invested

$5,173.62

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$67.19

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$4,499.42

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$58.45

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ClickKlackClickCTR

Invested

$8,997.84

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

99%

174-1 (175)

pieped

Yes

Invested

$2,903.05

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$265.54

Record

42%

71-100 (171)

Zaratustra

Yes

Invested

$1,685.64

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

62%

351-214 (565)

balerinacapuchina

Yes

Invested

$3,159.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$20

Record

72%

176-70 (246)

brte

Yes

Invested

$1,620

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$735

Record

—

10-6 (16)

mountaindewd

Yes

Invested

$350

Value

$553

PnL

+$196

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

ABC12345654321CTR

Invested

$340.73

Value

$370.67

PnL

-$173.98

Record

50%

1658-1652 (3310)

cowcat

Yes

Invested

$146.64

Value

$217.2

PnL

+$70.56

Record

53%

1560-1362 (2922)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$1,368.53

Value

$178.81

PnL

+$24.45

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

rocky42019CTR

Invested

$162.98

Value

$161.84

PnL

-$1.14

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

pantomime

Yes

Invested

$72.62

Value

$155.05

PnL

+$80.47

Record

52%

1287-1198 (2485)

twinna<$100

Yes

Invested

$41

Value

$79

PnL

+$37

Record

50%

92-93 (185)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR

Invested

$240.37

Value

$74.88

PnL

-$120.49

Record

39%

1780-2832 (4612)

TimeTraveler<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.56

Value

$56.49

PnL

+$22.57

Record

41%

1986-2802 (4788)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$234.38

Value

$54.98

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

probabilityCTR<$100

Invested

$68.05

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$30.65

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

TheImpasseCTR<$100

Invested

$55.14

Value

$26.64

PnL

-$29.1

Record

22%

145-528 (673)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 79%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

20 of 29 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

4825h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 53% · 17

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 56% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 72% · 25

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.2%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.