Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 57¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$33

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 57¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,196

Combined PnL+$27.15

No2 traders

Total Value$540.36

Total Shares1,242

Combined PnL+$5.85

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Roflan-ludoman	Yesavg 58.7¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$47	62% 649-396 (1045)
StupidMonkeyyy	Yesavg 55.6¢	$892.85	$906.95	+$14.1	50% 147-145 (292)
GollumGekkoCTR	Noavg 42.7¢	$502.1	$510.99	+$8.89	68% 2074-958 (3032)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f	Yesavg 52¢	$99.98	$108.65	+$8.65	69% 156-69 (225)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 51.5¢	$31.16	$35.17	+$4.01	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
2B9S<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.59	$33.56	+$32.97	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 62.7¢	$32.41	$29.38	-$3.04	53% 6690-5888 (12578)
DOG-UndressedVersion<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$9.19	$23.6	+$14.41	51% 2279-2148 (4427)

Roflan-ludoman

Yes

Invested

$2,518.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$47

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

StupidMonkeyyy

Yes

Invested

$892.85

Value

$906.95

PnL

+$14.1

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

GollumGekkoCTR

Invested

$502.1

Value

$510.99

PnL

+$8.89

Record

68%

2074-958 (3032)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f

Yes

Invested

$99.98

Value

$108.65

PnL

+$8.65

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.16

Value

$35.17

PnL

+$4.01

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

2B9S<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.59

Value

$33.56

PnL

+$32.97

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$32.41

Value

$29.38

PnL

-$3.04

Record

53%

6690-5888 (12578)

DOG-UndressedVersion<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.19

Value

$23.6

PnL

+$14.41

Record

51%

2279-2148 (4427)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 57%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

709h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

13 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.0%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$72.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

172.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.